UK Government Geopolitical Assessments
The UK Government required support to deliver a systematic method of geopolitical assessment and analysis to enable evidence-based decision making and forecasting for the Ministry of Defence, working collaboratively with the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL), that looked 15 years into the military’s future.
Net Assessment is a systematic method of analysis that fulfills the need for an indirect decision support system and provides a major input to the strategic planning/management system in any national Ministry of Defence.
Gathering relevant information and data for accurate geopolitical assessment requires expertise, industry connections and a dedicated focus. This is not something you can “Google” and even many of the well-established publications lack the benefit of international industry connections to deliver accuracy, relevance and currency. The Ministry of Defence required support to utilise industry knowledge, data analysis and the production of evidence-based reports to evaluate relevant research in a timely and cost-effective manner.
SVGC was originally founded to provide support to the Ministry of Defence and associated industry, and we have over 24 years’ experience offering our expertise. With substantial knowledge of the highly regulated public sector decision environment, we were perfectly suited to work on this project. As a result, our approach to design and delivery of these services is now increasingly in demand from other UK government departments with the potential to apply to similar Government processes outside the UK.
SVGC collated information, insight and data from 26 countries across the world using existing analysis, modelling and our broad range of international networks. Looking at economy, defence policy and inter-country cooperation enabled us to identify risk causes and assessments of suitability for coalition. Integral to the output was insight into future technology and readiness to be utilised as part of any defence cooperation.
Through collaboration and discussion SVGC evaluated political systems, culture, public life and policies, external relationships with neighbouring countries as well as equipment and personnel of the armed forces for all 26 countries.
The methods used were tailored to the specific country and each report was largely bespoke, however, common elements featured throughout for example geography, economy, political systems and how they interrelate. Building such analysis for such a wide range of communities enabled additional meta-analysis to occur – considering the relationship between those nations – providing opportunities for further insight.
Open source and discussion-based research fed the majority of the analytical data, liaising with defence contacts locally and internationally. Once collated SVGC was able to successfully forecast foreign political events and draw conclusions to be fed back to the Ministry of Defence and DSTL.
SVGC delivered analysis, reports and assessments to DSTL, enabling the government to make evidence based, well-informed decisions on potential partners, identifying and, where necessary, mitigating risks whilst additionally providing insight into enemy operations and offering the information required for the MoD and DSTL to take forward in their work for forecasting potential risks.